Characterization of vegetation change by NDVI and EVI time series in BoboleBotanical Reserve, Mozambique

Abstract

Mozambique is located in the south-eastern range of the African continent, between the parallels 10º27' and 26º52' south latitude and between the meridians 30º12' and 40º51' east longitude. The continental surface area is 786,380 km2 and this area corresponds to about 2.6% of the surface of the African continent which is approximately 30 million km2 (MICOA, 2007). Mozambique has a forest cover of 34 million hectares, and more than half of this area (17 million hectares) is productive forest. There is however a high rate of deforestation and floristic degradation that is attentive to the extinction of various forest species and not only. The Bobole Botanical Reserve is a conservation area located in the Marracuene district of Maputo Province in Mozambique, established for the protection of botanical species and raphia australis, a species declared on an extension route in Mozambique. The objective of this study was to characterize the change in vegetationthrough NDVI and EVI time series from 1990 to 2020. The ARIMA model (2, 2, 4) and (3,2, 3) were the ones that best suited the NDVI and EVI series, respectively. The series forecast by the ARIMA model showed decay trends of vegetation indices, with average values of 0.37 and 0.40 for NDVI and EVI, respectively. Although the forecast has shown that the vegetation will be in the moderate range, urgent decision-making is needed só that the existing resources in the reserve can be safeguarded.